Airstrikes, militants and a refugee crisis fail to dampen Iraq oil markets空襲,武裝人員和難民危機未能抑制伊拉克石油市場

By John Defterios, CNN
August 14, 2014 -- Updated 1324 GMT (2124 HKT)
Watch this video

Oil companies suspend operations in Iraq

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Airstrikes, rebels seizing oil fields and a refugee crisis would normally spell market panic
  • But in Iraq, which has dealing with all three issues, oil prices have remained steady
  • The militants storming the country's north have not taken the country's oil-rich south
  • And investment is still being pumped into the region, John Defterios writes

Editor's note: John Defterios is CNN's Emerging Markets Editor and anchor of Global Exchange, CNN's business show focused on the emerging and BRIC markets. Follow John on Twitter.

Abu Dhabi (CNN) -- Usually, airstrikes, rebels seizing control of oil fields and refineries, plus a severe refugee crisis are a recipe for market panic.

That is the situation unfolding in Northern Iraq, but without a spike in prices, even though energy companies are retrenching.

There's been a growing list of small and medium sized explorers who have suspended operations: London listed Afren, Dublin based Petroceltic and Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, known as TAQA here in the UAE. Chevron, a major oil company, is trimming non-essential staff and others will likely do the same.

John Defterios
John Defterios

Gulf Keystone, an early mover in the Kurdish Region, said the situation is not good, but after fortifying their facilities, production is holding steady at 25,000 barrels a day.

 
Maliki's roadmap to crisis

What we have now, after the initial panic when ISIS made its move into Iraq, are two distinct camps: Explorers suspending operations and producers battening down the hatches and producing as best they can. According to the Kurdish Regional Government, supplies up north are still above 300,000 barrels a day.

 
Chaos, violence the new normal in Iraq

Tucked into the IEA's latest monthly report is one of today's harsher realities: ISIS has taken control of seven fields, which typically produce about 80 thousand barrels a day. Energy and security sources here in the region tell me that oil is starting to find its way onto the black market, offered at a heavy discount.

 
Life after fleeing from ISIS in Iraq

Beyond the fighting, other complex problems still exist that could easily tilt the balance in Iraq. In Baiji, near the country's center, 300,000 barrels of refining capacity is off-line after ISIS rebels fought for control, according to the Iraq Energy Institute's Luay al-Khatteeb.

Oil is being exported via pipeline from the Kurdish region through the Port of Ceyhan in Turkey. Tankers have sailed, but Baghdad is blocking sales with an on-going dispute over who actually controls that oil.

Despite all that, Iraq continues to supply the market with an ample level of crude. According to the IEA's monthly report, overall production is 3.1 million barrels a day, down slightly from the month before. Exports are up again to 2.44 million and that is what the market is concentrating on.

But there is a price to pay for the violence in the north and political in-fighting in Baghdad. The country's original target of expanding capacity to over 4 million barrels a day will be missed, according to al- Khatteeb.

With this level of uncertainty, the international oil companies (IOCs) may tighten their purse strings, waiting to see if the U.S. intervention can help stabilize the country before committing more money for exploration and production.

The big bounty for Iraq and the energy majors remains the oil rich south around Basra which, despite initial security threats against international oil workers, is pumping and exporting crude at near record levels.

BP initially trimmed staff when ISIS began its march into Iraq, but at the end of July, CEO Bob Dudley went out of his way to assure investors production is back up to normal with plans for expansion.

"The Rumaila field is now the second largest producing field in the world at about 1.4 million barrels per day," said Dudley. "If you think about the map of Iraq, it is down in the bottom of the funnel, near the Kuwait border, in the desert, in an unpopulated area."

Lukoil has put $4 billion into the West Qurna 2 field in the south -- one of the world's largest oil fields -- and despite initial delays is still producing 300,000 barrels a day without interruption.

What we have learned in the past two months of fighting, is another harsh reality: Money talks.

Iraq may have difficulty staying glued together as a country or even passing a petroleum law to govern revenue sharing, but securing production and distribution have been paramount. And that persistence earned the country $53 billion last month alone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

空襲,武裝人員和難民危機未能抑制伊拉克石油市場
由約翰·Defterios,美國有線電視新聞網
2014年8月14日 - 更新1324 GMT(2124 HKT)
觀看此視頻
石油公司中止在伊拉克的行動
新聞提要
空襲,反政府武裝佔領油田和難民危機通常會拼市場恐慌
但在伊拉克,這已處理所有三個問題,油價保持平穩
武裝分子突襲了祖國的大江沒有採取該國的石油資源豐富的南部
和投資仍在泵入區域,約翰Defterios寫入
編者按:約翰Defterios是CNN的新興市場編輯和全球交流,CNN的商業秀專注於新興市場和金磚四國的市場定位。按照約翰的Twitter。
阿布扎比(CNN) -通常情況下,空襲,反政府武裝佔領油田和煉油廠,再加上嚴重的難民危機的控制是一個良方市場恐慌。
情況就是這樣展開在伊拉克北部,但沒有在價格居高不下,儘管能源公司節衣縮食。
還有的是小型和中型的探險家誰已暫停操作的越來越多:倫敦上市AFREN,都柏林的Petroceltic和阿布扎比國家能源公司,這在阿聯酋被稱為TAQA。雪佛龍公司,一個主要的石油公司,是修整非必要的工作人員和其他人很可能會做同樣的。
約翰Defterios
約翰Defterios
海灣梯形校正,最早進入庫爾德地區,說情況不是很好,但強化其設施後,產量持穩於每日25,000桶。
馬利基的路線圖,以危機
我們現在,當ISIS做出了進軍伊拉克的最初的恐慌之後,是兩個截然不同的陣營:探險者暫停操作和生產者未雨綢繆,生產的最好的,他們可以。根據庫爾德地區政府,提供高達北部仍高於30萬桶每天。
混亂,暴力的新常態伊拉克
塞進國際能源署(IEA)的最新月度報告是當今苛刻的現實之一:ISIS採取七個領域,通常每天生產約80萬桶的控制。能在這裡和在該地區的安全部門消息人士告訴我,油開始尋路到黑市,在沉重的折扣提供。
從Isis在伊拉克逃離後的生活
除了戰鬥,其他複雜的問題依然存在,可以很容易地傾斜在伊拉克的平衡。在白芨,靠近該國的中心,30萬桶的煉油能力為離線後的ISIS反政府武裝爭取控制,根據伊拉克能源研究所的Luay AL-Khatteeb。
石油正通過管道從庫爾德地區通過土耳其港口傑伊漢出口。油輪航行了,但巴格達阻止銷售與持續的糾紛究竟是誰控制了石油。
儘管如此,伊拉克將繼續為市場提供原油的充足程度。根據IEA的月度報告顯示,總體產量每天310萬桶,略低於前一個月。出口量回升至244萬,這就是市場集中。

但有一個代價,在北部的暴力和政治內鬥在巴格達。該國原來的擴大產能,以每天超過400萬桶的目標將被錯過,根據AL- Khatteeb。
隨著不確定性的這個層面上,國際石油公司(IOC的)可能收緊了錢袋,等著看,如果美國干預,可以幫助穩定該國投入更多的資金用於勘探和生產。
大賞金伊拉克和能源巨頭依然是石油資源豐富的南部巴士拉周圍的,儘管對國際石油工人最初的安全威脅,是抽水,並在接近歷史最高水平出口原油。
英國石油公司最初修剪的工作人員時,ISIS開始了進軍伊拉克,但在七月底,首席執行官鮑勃·達德利去了他的方法,以確保投資者的產量恢復到正常的計劃進行擴展。
“在魯邁拉油田是目前世界上第二大產油田的每天約140萬桶,”杜德利說。“如果你認為對伊拉克的地圖,它是倒在漏斗的底部,靠近科威特邊境,在沙漠,在無人居住的地區。”
盧克石油公司已經加上$ 4十億到西古爾納2場在南部 - 世界上最大的油田之一 - 儘管最初的延遲仍然是生產30萬桶一天沒有間斷。
我們已經學會在戰鬥中,過去的兩個月裡,是另一種殘酷的現實:有錢能使鬼推磨。
伊拉克可能有困難一起住施膠作為一個國家,甚至通過一項石油法管轄的收入分成,而是保證生產和銷售已至關重要。和持久性所賺取的COUNTRY $ 53十億上個月孤單。

arrow
arrow
    全站熱搜

    evita6804 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()