US economy grows at rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter美國經濟增長率為3.5%,第三季率

 


Many economists think full-year growth for 2015 will hit 3 percent, giving the economy the best annual performance since 2005, two years before the Great Recession began.

The report was the first of three estimates of the gross domestic product, the economy's total output of goods and services. Analysts believe the economy is maintaining momentum in the current quarter, with a big fall in gas prices expected to bolster consumer spending. After the roller-coaster first- and second-quarter gyrations, the economy is poised to achieve consistently stronger growth for the rest of this year and all of 2015.The third quarter result, which was slightly better than economists expected, followed a 4.6 percent rebound in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The economy shrank at a 2.1 percent rate in the first three months of the year due to a harsh winter.


WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy grew at a solid annual rate of 3.5 percent in the July-September quarter, propelled by solid gains in business investment, export sales and the biggest jump in military spending in five years.
 

For the third quarter, consumer spending grew at a solid 1.8 percent annual rate. That was slower than the 2.5 percent increase in the spring quarter, a gain that reflected pent-up demand as consumers made up for missed shopping days during the winter storms.

Consumer spending contributed 1.2 percentage points to growth in the third quarter. Another major contribution came from an 11 percent rise in export sales, far outpacing imports, which fell at a 1.7 rate. The smaller trade gap added 1.3 percentage points to growth in the third quarter.

The data comes amid concern that the export boom may soon fade due to weakness overseas. Europe is on the brink of its third recession in seven years, Japan is faltering, and China and Brazil are also struggling.

 

Stronger Government Spending

Government spending added another 0.8 percentage point to growth, with federal spending growing at a 10 percent rate. It was the first positive contribution in more than two years. Federal activity had been constrained by spending cuts and last year's partial government shutdown.

Defense spending shot up at a 16 percent rate, the fastest advance since a 17.4 percent gain in the second quarter of 2009.

Business spending on equipment grew at a 7.2 percent rate in the third quarter, and residential construction grew at a 1.8 percent rate. While an increase, it marked a slowdown from 8.8 percent growth in housing in the second quarter.

Much of the optimism for the economy going forward stems from the strength of job growth, which has lowered the unemployment rate to a six-year low of 5.9 percent. In September, the economy added 248,000 jobs, extending a string of strong gains.

The additional workers should translate into more income and consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of economic activity.

The Federal Reserve noted the brightening U.S. prospects as it ended a policy meeting Wednesday. It retained language in a statement saying it didn't expect to raise its benchmark interest rate for a “considerable time.” But it also pointed to rising signs of strength, including job gains and lower unemployment.

Against that backdrop, the Fed ended its third round of bond buying. Over the past six years, the Fed has pumped more than US$3 trillion into the economy through bond purchases designed to keep long-term rates low.

Most economists don't expect the Fed to begin raising rates before June. But they viewed the Fed's statement as a warning that if the economy strengthened more than expected in coming months, rate hikes could start occurring sooner than investors think.

美國經濟增長率為3.5%,第三季率

馬丁Crutsinger,美聯社
2014年10月31日,上午12:01 TWN

華盛頓 - 美國經濟增長率在7-9月季度的3.5%的固體年率,通過紮實收益企業投資,出口銷售和軍費開支五年來最大漲幅推動。

第三季度的結果,這是略好於經濟學家的預期,隨後在第二季度4.6%的反彈,美國商務部週四公佈。經濟在今年前三個月2.1%的速度萎縮,由於嚴酷的冬天。

該報告是第一個國內生產總值(GDP),商品和服務的經濟總產出的3估計。分析人士認為,經濟保持勢頭在當前季度,大幅下跌的天然氣價格預計將增強消費者的消費。過山車第一代和第二季度的起落之後,經濟有望實現今年的其餘部分,所有2015年持續強勁的增長。

許多經濟學家認為全年經濟增長為2015年將達到3%,自2005年以來給經濟的最佳年度業績,前兩年的大蕭條開始了。

對於第三季度,消費支出增長了堅實的1.8%的年增長率。這是比增幅春夏季度的2.5%,這反映了被壓抑的需求,因為消費者在冬季風暴彌補錯過的購物天的增益慢。

消費者支出在第三季度貢獻了1.2個百分點的增長。從11%上升,出口銷售的又一重大貢獻出來,遠遠超過進口量,較去年同期下降在1.7速率。較小的貿易赤字增加1.3個百分點,經濟增長在第三季度。

本數據來源於市場擔心,出口熱潮可能很快就會因褪色無力海外。歐洲是它的第三次經濟衰退七年的邊緣,日本正在下滑,而中國和巴西也在苦苦掙扎。

強大的政府支出

政府支出又增加了0.8個百分點的增長,聯邦支出正以10%的速度。這是兩年多來的首次積極貢獻。聯邦活動已經受到制約削減支出和去年的政府部分關閉。

國防開支激增,在16%的速度,最快的進步,因為17.4%的漲幅在2009年第二季度。

對設備的企業開支增長在第三季度7.2%的增長率,和住宅建築增長了1.8%的稅率。雖然增加了,它標誌著從8.8%增長放緩,房屋在第二季度。

許多樂觀的經濟向前發展的源於就業增長的力量,這已經降低了失業率為6年來最低的5.9%。在九月份,經濟增加248,000就業機會,擴大了漲勢強勁的字符串。

額外的工人應轉化為更多的收入和消費支出,這佔了70%的經濟活動。

美聯儲指出,因為它結束了貨幣政策會議週三在美國照亮前景。它保留了語言在一份聲明中說,它沒有想到,以提高其基準利率一個“相當長的時間。”但它也指出,實力不斷上升的跡象,包括就業增長和降低失業率。

在此背景下,美聯儲結束了第三輪債券購買的。在過去的六年裡,美聯儲通過購買債券旨在保持低長期利率抽超過3萬億美元注入經濟。

大多數經濟學家並不預計美聯儲將在這個月之前加息。但他們認為美聯儲的聲明以示警告,如果經濟增強超過預期在未來幾個月內,加息可能會開始出現早於投資者認為。

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