Sick or deposed? Where's Kim Jong Un?

(CNN) -- Kim Jong Un didn't show up to the anniversary marking his father's election to the Workers' Party on Wednesday. He wasn't at the parliamentary assembly late last month either.

On Friday, observers will scrutinize the 69th anniversary celebration of North Korea's Workers' Party for signs of the young leader.

The Workers' Party, founded in 1945, is North Korea's political party and is considered one of the country's most crucial institutions alongside the military. The anniversary is the next litmus test -- ceremonies at which Kim, 31, would usually be front and center.

Analysts are puzzled and speculation is running rampant about why Kim has been out of the public eye. He hasn't made a public appearance in over a month, and was reportedly last seen at a concert with his wife September 3.

 

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State media attempted to explain his absence by saying Kim was experiencing "discomfort."

He had been seen hobbling earlier in the summer, prompting theories ranging from weight gain to gout. There have also been questions about the possible meaning behind his absence: Is he genuinely sick or are there machinations within the North Korean power circle?

Is Kim Jong Un's sister in charge?

North Korea as Rorschach test

"Whenever someone doesn't show up in the public, we tend to speculate something of a power struggle," said Han Park, author of "North Korea Demystified."

Because not much is known about North Korea's internal politics, observers scrutinize public functions and ceremonies to see who appears and who does not.

"We're always operating on this incomplete info," said Joshua Stanton, a North Korea observer who created the website One Free Korea, which is critical of the regime.

Drawing conclusions about what's happening in North Korea has been likened to a Rorschach test -- it's a reflection of the views of whoever is drawing the conclusions, rather than an informed analysis based on facts. And the facts in the reclusive country are murky at best.

"People have a tendency to see the things they want to see," Stanton said. "We should default to skepticism."

Opinion: Why Kim is probably still in charge

North Korea's diplomacy efforts

With its top leader missing in action, North Korea has extended itsdiplomatic efforts with the outside world.

One of its officials said the regime was ready to restart the six-party nuclear talks, which include Russia, the United States, China, Japan and South Korea. It has also reached out to the European Union and South Korea.

High-ranking Pyongyang officials visited South Korea on Saturday, but just days later, the two countries were exchanging fire at a disputed maritime demarcation line.

The mixed messages reflect Pyongyang's "state of constant and ever-shifting cost-benefit calculation to maximize its national self interests," said Jasper Kim, founder of the Asia-Pacific Global Research Group.

"Every move North Korea makes is a negotiation attempt to see which states will accede and offer something of value in exchange for some level of stability. This has and always will be North Korea's dominant negotiation strategy."

Longest absence

Kim made only one official appearance in September. This has only happened once before, in September 2010, and that was the month in which Kim made his first official public appearance alongside his father at Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, according to NK News, a website devoted to analyzing North Korea.

The current absence is Kim's longest since he first began making official appearances in 2010, NK News said. His longest absence as Supreme Leader prior to this was a 24-day period between June 7 and July 1, 2012. His second longest absence ever was for 29 days between July 28 and August 27, 2011 -- while his father was still alive, NK News said.

Kim's sole public appearance in September was at a Moranbong Band concert at Pyongyang's Mansudae Art Theatre, reported by state media on September 4. He was accompanied by his wife Ri Sol Ju, his sister Kim Yo Jong and several top officials including Hwang Pyong So.

在朝鮮的假期所有人的目光都在金正恩的跡象
由麥迪遜公園，美國有線電視新聞網
2014年10月9日 - 更新2325 GMT（0725 HKT）
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生病或廢黜？哪裡是金正云？
新聞提要
新：金正日的缺席是最長的，因為他的正式亮相始於2010年，NK新聞說
許多人看朝鮮勞動黨的金正云在第69屆週年
還有的是大肆炒作後，金正日不在公眾視線一個月
分析朝鮮的政治是非常有限
（CNN） -金正云沒有露面的週年日（星期三）標誌著他的父親當選為勞動黨。他是不是在議會上月底任。
上週五，觀察員將密切關注朝鮮勞動黨的第69週年慶祝活動的年輕領導者的跡象。
工人黨成立於1945年，是朝鮮的政黨，被認為是該國最重要的機構並肩軍隊之一。週年是下一個考驗 - 儀式在此金，31歲，通常會的前沿和中心。
分析師們感到困惑和投機猖獗，為什麼金已經淡出公眾視線中。他沒有在一個多月公開露面，並且據說最後一次露面時，他的妻子9月3日的音樂會。
是金正云仍然統治在朝鮮？ 為什麼金正云讓相機害羞？ 朝鮮領導人訪問韓國 北朝鮮官員進行突訪
國家媒體試圖說金正日正在經歷來解釋他的缺席“不舒服”。
他被視為在今年夏天早些時候步履蹣跚，促使理論，從體重增加痛風。也有一些關於他的背後沒有可能的意義的問題：他是真的病了，還是有北朝鮮的權力圈子裡的陰謀？
是金正云的妹妹負責？
北韓羅夏測驗
“每當有人不會在公眾露面，我們傾向於猜測什麼權力鬥爭，”漢園的作者說，“朝鮮揭秘”。
因為沒有多少人知道朝鮮的內政，觀察員審視公共職能和儀式，看看誰出現，誰沒有。
“我們對這個不完整的信息始終運行，”約書亞·斯坦頓，誰創造了網站的一個免費的韓國，這是非常關鍵的政權的朝鮮觀察家說。
畫什麼在朝鮮發生的事情已經被比喻為一個羅夏測試的結論 - 這是不管是誰畫的結論，而不是基於事實知情的分析觀點的思考。而在隱遁的國家的事實是陰暗的最好的。
“人們有一種傾向，看到他們想看到的東西，”斯坦頓說。“我們應該默認為懷疑。”
觀點：為什麼金正日很可能還是負責
朝鮮的外交努力Š
隨著行動的最高領導人失踪，朝鮮已經擴大了與外部世界的外交努力。
它的一個官員說，該政權已準備好重啟六方核談判，其中包括俄羅斯，美國，中國，日本和韓國。它也達到了歐盟和韓國。
高級平壤官員訪問了韓國在週六，但幾天後，這兩個國家都在有爭議的海上分界線交火。
混合消息反映平壤的“常數和不斷變化的成本效益計算的狀態，最大限度地發揮其自身的國家利益，”碧玉金的亞太全球研究集團的創始人。
“每一個行動，朝鮮是使談判的嘗試，看看哪些國家將加入，並提供以換取一些有價值的東西了一些穩定的水平，這已經而且將永遠是朝鮮的主導談判策略。”
最長的無
金九月份只有一個正式亮相。這只是發生過一次，在2010年9月，那是一個月，金正日做了他的第一次正式公開亮相沿著他的父親在太陽Kumsusan宮，根據NK新聞，網站致力於朝鮮進行分析。
在當前情況下是金的最長的，因為他第一次開始做正式亮相於2010年，NK新聞說。他在此之前，最長的無作為最高領袖是一個24天的期限6月7日和7月1日之間，2012年他的第二個最長的缺乏曾經是為7月28日和2011年8月27日在29日 - 而他的父親還活著， NK新聞說。
金正日唯一的公開露面九月是在牡丹峰樂團音樂會在平壤萬壽台藝術劇院，報經國家媒體9月4日，他陪同他的妻子索爾日菊，他的妹妹金呦鐘和幾個高級官員，包括黃禹錫抨所以。