Will Turkey face ISIS on the ground?

Editor's note: Gönül Tol is the founding director of The Middle East Institute's Center for Turkish Studies and an adjunct professor atGeorge Washington University's Institute for Middle East Studies.The views expressed in this commentary are entirely those of the author.

(CNN) -- Turkey is in a tough spot. It has ISIS militants threatening the Syrian border town of Kobani, inching ever closer to confronting Turkish security forces. In addition thousands of Syrian Kurds, fleeing ISIS attacks, have massed along its border, adding further to Ankara's troubles.

Amid mounting pressure to become more active in the U.S.-led international coalition against ISIS, the Turkish parliament last week overwhelmingly authorized its military to make incursions into Syria and Iraq; also to allow foreign troops to operate out of Turkish bases. The move has been greeted in Western capitals as a welcome sign that Turkey is finally fully on board with the anti-ISIS coalition.

Gönül Tol

Yet the Turkish parliament's actions herald neither a complete about-face in policy toward Syria nor immediate military action against ISIS. Indeed, Turkey's reasons for joining the war may be more to do with suppressing Kurdish separatists and removing the al-Assad regime than with destroying the jihadist group.

Toppling the leadership in Damascus and keeping in check the Syrian Kurds who are closely linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, have long been Ankara's priorities in Syria.

 

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The wording of last week's parliamentary resolution -- which states that "the terrorist elements of the outlawed PKK still exist in northern Iraq" -- suggests that Kurdish separatists still remain the Turkish government's top concern.

The vote does not signal intervention against ISIS any time soon: despite thousands of Syrian Kurdish refugees and ISIS's fast advance towards Turkey's southern border, Ankara seems unwilling to act. Turkey's defense minister Ismet Yilmaz said: "Don't expect an imminent step after the approval of the authorization request."

Rather, the Turkish government is likely to give its full cooperation to the campaign against ISIS so that it can secure agreement of a U.S.-backed no-fly zone in Syria: this, Ankara believes, would address both concerns.

Turkey thinks that Assad regime's ability to attack mainstream opposition forces from the air has strengthened ISIS, causing the Free Syrian Army to flee and allowing the Islamic militants to capture the vacant territory. Enforcing a no-fly zone over Syria would ground al-Assad's air force and boost rebels fighting to topple him: it could also establish a Turkish military presence, ridding northern Syria of Kurdish fighters linked to the PKK and smothering the autonomous Kurdish region. Turkey has become increasingly uneasy about the emergence of yet another Kurdish entity on its frontier after the PKK-affiliated Syrian Kurdish groups established autonomy in northern Syria.

The military and diplomatic boost that the PKK has received through its effective fight against ISIS has also worsened the situation for Ankara. In response to the growing ISIS threat, the PKK, the Peshmerga, and the People's Protection Unit (the PKK-linked Kurdish militia group fighting in Syria), have established a united Kurdish front, with the PKK militants coming to the aid of Peshmerga fighters and halting the jihadi group's advance into the autonomous region of northern Iraq. The People's Protection Unit was the main force battling ISIS, and it helped thousands of Yazidis escape from the western part of the region as ISIS attacked.

The PKK has effectively become the West's best hope for on-the-ground troops, winning the group positive reviews in Western media. Since the group started its assault against ISIS in northern Iraq, there has been a lot of talk in Western capitals about removing the PKK from the terror list.

READ: Who is doing what in the coalition battle against ISIS?

The fight against ISIS has also empowered the PKK militarily: Turkey is concerned that that weapons sent to the Peshmerga might ultimately end up in the hands of the PKK at a time when Ankara is moving forward with a deal that would disarm its group. The Turkish government puts the blame for this on the West but Ankara's overtures towards its own Kurdish minority have been mostly strained by its own short-sighted Syria policy.

The ongoing conflict around Kobani has underscored the many challenges the Syrian war poses for the peace process Ankara launched in 2012 in an effort to end the 30-year old Kurdish insurgency. The intensified shelling in Kobani has angered Kurds on the Turkish side of the border, who have blamed the Turkish government for allowing ISIS to fester and not doing enough to stop its assault against Kurds.

Turkey's reluctance to get involved for fear of empowering Kurdish militants in Turkey is now contributing to the growing discord between Kurds and the government. Last week, after reports that Turkey closed the border gates to impede the flight of Kurds from Kobani, Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK's imprisoned leader, warned that if ISIS carried out a "massacre" in Kobani then the peace process with the PKK could end.

If engaged by Ankara, the PKK-linked groups in Syria could be integrated into the moderate Syrian opposition and become an effective fighting force against the al-Assad regime. But the Turkish government's increasingly harsh rhetoric against the group signals that such a shift in Ankara's thinking is not in the works. Last week,Erdogan said "While the ISIS terror organization is causing turmoil in the Middle East, there has been ongoing PKK terror in my country for the last 32 years, and yet the world was never troubled by it. Why? Because this terror organization did not carry the name 'Islam.'"

If Turkey keeps seeing the PKK a bigger threat than ISIS activities in Syria, then the legislation passed last week is unlikely to lead to a deeper involvement of Turkey in the fight against the jihadist group.

土耳其艱難的選擇：就以ISIS或庫爾德工人黨？
通過格尼爾托爾，特向美國有線新聞網
2014年10月9日 - 更新1234 GMT（2034 HKT）
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土耳其將面臨ISIS在地上？
新聞提要
格尼爾托爾：土耳其可能加入反ISIS聯盟打壓庫爾德分裂主義者
這次投票並不意味著干預對ISIS的任何時間很快，她說：
精度：庫爾德工人黨已有效地成為上最地面部隊西方的最大希望
對ISIS的鬥爭亦有權對庫爾德工人黨軍事上，她寫道：
編者按：格尼爾托爾是的創始董事中東研究所的中心，土耳其研究的兼職教授和喬治·華盛頓大學的研究所中東研究。表示在本評論中的觀點完全屬於作者。
（CNN） -土耳其是一個艱難的位置。它有ISIS的武裝分子威脅Kobani的敘利亞邊境小鎮，緩慢更接近面對土耳其安全部隊。另外數以千計的敘利亞庫爾德人，逃離ISIS的攻擊，都沿其邊境集結，進一步增加了安卡拉的煩惱。
在一片越來越大的壓力，以更加積極地對ISIS以美國為首的國際聯盟，上週土耳其議會以壓倒多數批准了軍方進行入侵敘利亞和伊拉克; 還允許外國軍隊來操作了土耳其的基地。此舉已經迎來了西方國家的一個值得歡迎的跡象，土耳其終於完全在船上與反ISIS聯盟。
格尼爾托爾
格尼爾托爾
然而，土耳其議會的行動預示著既不是完全的挽回顏面的對朝政策，敘利亞也對ISIS立即採取軍事行動。事實上，土耳其的理由參戰可能更多的是抑制庫爾德分裂主義和刪除比銷毀聖戰組織的阿薩德政權。
傾倒在大馬士革的領導，並保持在檢查誰是緊密聯繫在一起的庫爾德工人黨，或庫爾德工人黨，敘利亞庫爾德人，早已在敘利亞安卡拉的重點。
土耳其授權在ISIS罷工 ISIS的勢力進入Kobani，有消息說 拜登說後悔盟友幫助的ISIS 凸輪捕捉ISIS砲擊敘利亞城市
其中指出-上週的議會決議的措辭“被取締的庫爾德工人黨的恐怖元素仍然存在，在伊拉克北部” -表明，庫爾德分離主義仍然是土耳其政府的頭等大事。
任何時候的投票並不意味著干預對ISIS很快：儘管成千上萬的敘利亞庫爾德難民和ISIS的對土耳其南部邊境快速前進，安卡拉似乎不願採取行動。土耳其國防部長伊斯梅特·耶爾馬茲說：“不要指望授權請求批准後即將發生的一步。”
相反，土耳其政府很可能會全力合作，對ISIS的運動，這樣就可以保證美國支持禁飛區在敘利亞的協議：這個，安卡拉認為，將解決這兩個問題。
土耳其認為，阿薩德政權的攻擊主流的反對勢力來自空氣的能力加強了ISIS，導致敘利亞自由軍逃離，使伊斯蘭武裝分子佔領空置領土。在執行敘利亞禁飛區將地面阿薩德空軍和提高反政府武裝的戰鬥，推翻了他：它也建立了土耳其的軍事存在，擺脫與庫爾德工人黨庫爾德戰士敘利亞北部和扼殺自治的庫爾德地區。土耳其已經越來越不安又庫爾德實體在其前沿的出現後，庫爾德工人黨下屬的敘利亞庫爾德團體在敘利亞北部建立的自主權。
軍事和外交提升，庫爾德工人黨通過其對IS-IS有效打擊收也惡化了安卡拉的情況。為了應對不斷增長的ISIS的威脅，庫爾德工人黨的準軍事部隊和人民保護單元（庫爾德工人黨聯庫爾德民兵組織在敘利亞的戰鬥），建立了統一的庫爾德人面前，與庫爾德工人黨武裝分子來到準軍事部隊戰士的幫助並暫停聖戰集團進軍伊拉克北部的自治區。人民保護股是主力作戰ISIS，並幫助數千Yazidis來自該地區的西部逃脫的ISIS的攻擊。
庫爾德工人黨已有效地成為上最地面部隊西方的最大希望
格尼爾托爾

庫爾德工人黨已有效地成為上最地面部隊西方的最大希望，贏得該組積極評價中的西方媒體。由於本集團開始了對Isis在伊拉克北部襲擊，出現了大量的通話大約從恐怖名單上刪除的庫爾德工人黨西部的首都。
閱讀：誰在做什麼反對的ISIS聯盟戰？
對ISIS的鬥爭亦有權對庫爾德工人黨軍事：土耳其關注的是，發送給準軍事部隊的武器可能最終結束在庫爾德工人黨手中的時候安卡拉正在推進一項協議，將解除其集團。土耳其政府提出歸咎於此西，但安卡拉的姿態走向自己的庫爾德少數民族曾用自己的短視敘利亞的政策已經大多緊張。
各地Kobani持續不斷的衝突已經強調了很多挑戰敘利亞戰爭帶來的安卡拉，2012年，以努力結束30歲的庫爾德叛亂分子發起的和平進程。在Kobani加緊炮轟激怒了庫爾德人在邊界的土耳其一側，誰指責土耳其政府允許ISIS潰爛並沒有採取足夠的措施停止對庫爾德人的襲擊。
涉足生怕授權土耳其庫爾德武裝分子正在促成庫爾德人與政府之間日益不和土耳其的不情願。上週，之後報導稱，土耳其關閉邊境大門，以阻止庫爾德人Kobani飛行，阿卜杜拉·奧賈蘭，庫爾德工人黨的監禁領導人警告說，如果ISIS開展Kobani了“大屠殺”，然後與庫爾德工人黨的和平進程可能結束。
如果安卡拉從事，在敘利亞的庫爾德工人黨聯組可以集成到中度敘利亞反對派，並成為反對阿薩德政權的有效戰力。但土耳其政府的反對團體日趨惡劣的言辭預示著在安卡拉的思考這樣的轉變是不是在工作。上週，埃爾多安說：“雖然ISIS的恐怖組織是導致動盪的中東地區，出現了持續的庫爾德工人黨的恐怖在我的國家的最後32年，但世界從未被它困擾，為什麼呢，因為這個恐怖組織沒有攜帶的名字“伊斯蘭”。“
如果土耳其一直看到比庫爾德工人黨在敘利亞的ISIS活動更大的威脅，那麼上週通過的立法不太可能導致土耳其在打擊聖戰組織鬥爭中的一個更深層次的參與。