Expert: Queen surprised by 'Yes' surge

Edinburgh, Scotland (CNN) -- Let's not pretend Queen Elizabeth doesn't have opinions. She's human and must have strong views on the potential break-up of the United Kingdom, which she represents. What matters is whether she expresses those views in public, which would compromise her constitutional role to remain impartial, and could undermine the position of the monarchy. The Queen has managed to "stay above politics" for more than 60 years -- and with Scotland voting on independence Thursday she's not about to upset things now.

The closest Elizabeth II has come to commenting on the referendum was something she said to a well-wisher outside a Scottish church on Sunday, that she hopes people "think very carefully about the future." This is a rare moment of candor for someone who's well aware that anything she says to a member of the public has the potential to be picked up by reporters, who she also knows have the referendum at the forefront of their minds. This came amid UK newspaper reports that the Queen felt a great deal of concern over independence.

Her grandson, Prince William, also appeared to step into the debate, according to some newspapers, when he was asked about his wife's second pregnancy on the day it was announced. Of course, he said, the couple were thrilled -- but then he added: "It's important that we focus on the big news, the big international and domestic thing going on at the moment." That comment was seen by parts of the UK media as a reference to the Scottish referendum.

So what's the official line? A palace spokeswoman told me: "Any suggestion that the Queen would wish to influence the outcome of the current referendum campaign is categorically wrong. Her Majesty is firmly of the view that this is a matter for the people of Scotland."

The Queen has come under pressure from some politicians to step into the debate but that idea was given short shrift. "The Queen is above politics and those in political office have a duty to ensure that this remains the case," said the spokeswoman.

 

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Scotland campaigners work to sway voters

One of the Queen's great achievements has been to retain cross-party support in parliament throughout her reign (remember, she came to the throne in 1952). She's done this by refusing to take sides, in public at least. Due to her popularity, she could sway opinion but royalty is about the long game. If she involves herself in policy then she risks alienating people and parliamentarians who could ultimately de-throne her and bring in a president.

The Queen's role in Scotland isn't actually at any immediate risk. The frontman of the pro-independence campaign, Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, says he looks forward to the Queen remaining as "Queen of Scots" in an independent Scotland. That doesn't, however, do justice to the historic significance of the moment.

The United Kingdom was born out of the merger of the English and Scottish royal families more than 400 years ago, which in turn led to the Treaty of Union of 1707 and the joining of parliaments. This new country went on to build an empire that spanned the globe, at various points taking in the United States, India, Australia, Canada and much of Africa.

The managed decline of the empire after World War II is held up as one of Queen Elizabeth's great achievements. As territories broke away, she helped rebrand a Commonwealth of independent nations. But bringing Scotland into that fold has an entirely different significance.

Scotland isn't some breakaway outpost of the British Empire; it's home turf which has remained uncontested since the Renaissance. Breaking up the United Kingdom now would prompt an identity crisis for Queen and country. Factor in that her mother was Scottish and it's intrinsically personal too.

The last time Elizabeth II touched publicly on this idea was in 1977 during a speech to mark her Silver Jubilee. At the time, Scotland and Wales were voting on forming national assemblies. She said: "I cannot forget that I was crowned Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Perhaps this Jubilee is a time to remind ourselves of the benefits which union has conferred, at home and in our international dealings, on the inhabitants of all parts of the United Kingdom."

Empires may come and go, but the Queen's facing the break-up of her home country. It's personal and professional for her.

蘇格蘭票：為皇后，這是個人
由最大福斯特，美國有線電視新聞網
2014年9月17日 - 更新0939 GMT（1739 HKT）
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專家：大經“是”驚訝激增
新聞提要
蘇格蘭本週投票決定是否成為一個獨立的國家
福斯特：女王一直小心不要捲入辯論
英國起因於英格蘭和蘇格蘭的王室合併400年前
女王在蘇格蘭的作用其實不是在任何直接的風險，福斯特說：
蘇格蘭愛丁堡（CNN） -讓我們不要假裝女王伊麗莎白沒有意見。她是人類，必須對潛在的破裂英國，她表示強烈的意見。重要的是她是否表示這些意見在公共場合，這將危及她的憲制角色，以保持公正，並可能破壞君主制的位置。女王已經成功地“呆政治之上”為60歲以上-與蘇格蘭投票獨立性週四她不是現在心煩的事情。
最近的伊麗莎白二世已經到了評論的投票是她一個好心人蘇格蘭教會在週日外說，她希望人們“非常仔細地考慮未來。” 這是坦誠的人誰是清楚地知道，任何事，她說給公眾的一員，必須拾起記者，誰她也知道有公投，在他們心中的最前沿潛在的罕見時刻。此際來到英國報紙報導，女王感到了極大關注獨立性。
現在分手了英國將促使女王和國家認同危機
她的孫子，威廉王子，也出現了步入辯論，根據一些報紙，當他被問及他的妻子的第二次懷孕在它宣布的那一天。當然，他說，夫婦倆感到非常興奮 - 但他補充說：“重要的是，我們把重點放在大新聞，大國際，國內的事情，此刻怎麼回事。” 這一評論被認為是英國媒體的部分作為參考，蘇格蘭公投。
那麼什麼是官網上？宮殿的發言人告訴我說：“任何暗示，女王希望影響目前的公投運動的結果是斷然錯誤陛下認為這是蘇格蘭的人的事堅決。”
女王已經到來的壓力下，一些政客步入辯論，但這一想法給予冷遇。“女王是超越政治和那些在政治處有責任確保這種情況仍然如此，”這位女發言人說。
蘇格蘭和英格蘭的岩石關係 英國提供的福利，如果蘇格蘭留 蘇格蘭的藍圖獨立呢？ 蘇格蘭活動家努力揮灑選民
其中一個女王的偉大成就一直保留在議會跨黨派支持她的整個統治時期（記住，她即位，1952年）。她拒絕表態，在公共至少做到了這一點。由於她的知名度，她可以揮灑的意見，但提成是關於長期的遊戲。如果她涉及自己的政策，然後，她的風險疏遠人民和國會議員誰最終會去她的寶座，並帶來總統。
女王在蘇格蘭的作用其實不是在任何即時危險。支持獨立運動的掛名負責人，蘇格蘭首席大臣亞歷克斯·薩蒙德說，他期待著繼續成為一個獨立的蘇格蘭“蘇格蘭女王”的女王。這不，但是，公正地對待當下的歷史意義。
英國為超過400年前誕生於英格蘭和蘇格蘭王室的合併，這反過來又導致了1707年聯盟條約和議會的參與。這個新的國家繼續建立橫跨全球，在不同點取在美國，印度，澳大利亞，加拿大和非洲大部分地區的帝國。
二戰結束後，帝國的管理降幅奉為女王伊麗莎白的偉大成就之一。由於地區爆發了，她幫貼牌獨立國家的聯合體。但使蘇格蘭成為了倍有完全不同的意義。
蘇格蘭不是大英帝國的一些分離的前哨; 它的老巢其自文藝復興以來一直沒有爭議。現在分手了英國將促使女王和國家的認同危機。因素，她的母親是蘇格蘭人，它的本質個人了。
上一次伊麗莎白二世公開談及這一想法是在1977年的演講中，以紀念她的銀禧紀念。當時，蘇格蘭和威爾士進行表決上形成全國性集會。她說：“我無法忘記我被加冕為大不列顛和北愛爾蘭聯合王國的女王也許這禧年是一個時間提醒自己的這些工會授予的好處，在家裡還是在我們的國際交往中，對。英國各地的居民。“
帝國來來去去，但女王的面對分手她的母國。這是個人和專業的她。