Scotland's vote on independence: What you need to know
蘇格蘭投票獨立性:你需要知道什麼
- Scotland holds a referendum on independence on September 18
- A "yes" vote would mean the break-up of its 307-year-old union with England and Wales
- Opinion polls suggest the momentum may have shifted to the Yes campaign
- Prime Minister David Cameron could face resignation calls if Scotland breaks away
(CNN) -- On September 18, Scots go to the polls to vote on the future of their country.
It's a vote that could end Scotland's 307-year union with England and Wales as Great Britain -- and see it launch into the world as an independent nation of some 5.3 million people.
When campaigning began, that seemed a far-fetched prospect. But the most recent polls suggest that what many Britons consider unthinkable could happen -- and the United Kingdom as we know it could be torn asunder.
Here's what you need to know about the landmark referendum.
What are the Scottish voting on, and why?
Voters will be presented with a simple yes/no question: Should Scotland be an independent country?
The Scottish government, led by the Scottish National Party, says this is a "once in a generation opportunity" for Scotland's people to take control of the decisions that affect them most. A "yes" vote means that "Scotland's future will be in Scotland's hands," it says, and that life will be better and fairer for its people.
British Prime Minister David Cameron wants Scotland to remain part of an undivided United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. He says that it is a decision solely for the Scottish people -- but that remaining part of the United Kingdom will give them security and strength. "There will be no going back," he warns.
Because the United Kingdom has no written constitution, there's no established law to govern the process. So these are truly uncharted waters.
Why is this significant to the rest of the world?
The question mark over Scotland's future is already having an impact on domestic and international business. Some worry that the breakup of the United Kingdom could undermine London's standing as an international financial capital.
Last month, 130 business leaders published an open letter in which they warned of the impact of uncertainty over issues including currency, regulation, tax, pensions, EU membership and support for Scottish exports. A day later, more than 200 other business leaders signed an open letter backing an independent Scotland.
The British pound sank Monday after the first poll that showed the "yes" vote in the lead, with CNN Money reporting that it reflected uncertainty over the outcome of the referendum and an increased risk of a "messy divorce."
The UK's defense capability could be affected. The Scottish government says it wants to remove nuclear weapons from Scotland as soon as possible -- namely, the UK Trident nuclear submarine fleet based at Faslane. The Scottish government says, "It is our firm position that an independent Scotland should not host nuclear weapons and we would only join NATO on that basis."
Scotland would have to renegotiate its entry to both NATO and the European Union if it votes for independence. EU leaders have signaled they would take a hard line and make Scotland apply to join like any other independent nation. However, the "yes" campaign says it could easily be done through amendments to existing treaties.
If Scotland chooses to split from Britain, it could give other people ideas.
The debate is being closely watched by independence movements in Spain's Catalonia province, Canada's Quebec province and France's Mediterranean island of Corsica.
If Scotland votes to leave, the British Prime Minister will likely come under pressure to resign -- although he has told UK media "emphatically" he will not do so. The major Westminster parties have promised to devolve more powers to Scotland if it chooses to stay in the union.
Who can vote?
Thanks to a bill passed last year extending the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds, almost everyone living in Scotland who is 16 or older on the day of the referendum will be able to vote.
This means English or Welsh citizens who reside in Scotland can take part. But Scots who are living elsewhere in the United Kingdom or overseas will not be entitled to cast a ballot.
It also means that the residents of England, Wales and Northern Ireland get no say on a historic change to the makeup of the United Kingdom.
What's the history behind the vote?
Scotland has long had a testy relationship with its more populous neighbor. The Act of Union in 1707 joined the kingdom of Scotland with England and Wales, but many Scots were unhappy at being yoked to their longtime rival south of the border.
Since 1999, Scotland has had a devolved government, meaning many, but not all, decisions are made at the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood, Edinburgh. In May 2011 the nationalist Scottish National Party, which had campaigned on a promise to hold an independence referendum, surprised many by winning an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament.
In October 2012, the UK and Scottish governments agreed that the referendum would be held, and the question to be put to voters was agreed on early last year.
Dauvit Broun, a professor of Scottish history at the University of Glasgow, said one driving force for the vote was the widening gulf between the policies pursued by the coalition UK government in Westminster, led by the Conservative Party under Cameron since 2010, and what the Scottish people want.
Many Scots are strongly opposed to the current Westminster government's attempts to reform -- or in their eyes dismantle -- the welfare state and say it was not elected by them. Illustrating that sentiment, there's only one Conservative MP in Scotland at present, leading humorists to point out that even giant pandas are better represented (Edinburgh Zoo has two.)
"Since the period of Margaret Thatcher, there has been a growing divide, and a sense that what Scotland feels consensus about ... has become more and more different to England," Broun said.
Looking further back, Scotland and England have been growing apart since the demise of the British Empire, Broun says. The decline of the Presbyterian church in Scotland, which provided a sense of self-government and Scottish identity, has also played a part in fueling the desire for independence, he said.
Who are the main players?
Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond is the ebullient leader of the pro-independence campaign. Labour MP Alistair Darling, who represents an Edinburgh constituency, heads the pro-union Better Together campaign.
Barack Obama
The pair have taken part in two TV debates, with Darling widely judged to have come out on top in the first, by a narrow margin, and Salmond to have done significantly better in the second.
David Cameron has also spoken strongly in favor of Scotland remaining part of the United Kingdom.
It's not just UK politicians who are getting involved. Singer David Bowie, in a Brit Awards acceptance speech delivered by supermodel Kate Moss, pleaded, "Scotland, stay with us."
Former Manchester United football club manager Alex Ferguson also opposes a split and has backed the "Better Together" campaign. "800,000 Scots, like me, live and work in other parts of the United Kingdom. We don't live in a foreign country; we are just in another part of the family of the UK," he is quoted as saying.
Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling, who lives in Scotland, made a hefty donation to the Better Together campaign, and Beatles star Paul McCartney has signed a letter urging Scottish voters to stick with Britain.
The Yes campaign has its own celebrity backers -- including former James Bond star Sean Connery, actor Brian Cox, and comedian Frankie Boyle.
Actor Alan Cumming launched the Twitter campaign #goforitscotland. "What's happening now in Scotland is the most exciting political and social discourse that will forever change our destiny. Check it out!" he tweeted as the vote nears.
Even U.S President Barack Obama has gotten in on the act. He acknowledged it was a decision for the people of Scotland, but added: "We obviously have a deep interest in making sure that one of the closest allies we will ever have remains a strong, robust, united and effective partner."
What are the key issues?
Questions over the economy have dominated the debate.
The Scottish government argues the country would be better off after independence, largely based on its taking control of revenues from North Sea oil and gas found in Scottish waters. It says it would manage the energy industry better, invest to boost production, and create a wealth fund, similar to Norway's oil fund, to benefit future generations.
But not everyone agrees with the Scottish government's rosy assessment. A report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies in March said the latest figures showed Scotland's budget deficit had worsened relative to the rest of the United Kingdom, thanks to falling North Sea revenues and higher public spending north of the border. It also warned of the dangers of relying too heavily on a volatile and ultimately finite income source.
The Scottish government says the economy is diverse, with other key elements including food and drink, tourism, creative industries, universities, financial services and manufacturing.
Another big issue is what currency an independent Scotland would have.
Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond has said he wants Scotland to continue to use the pound in a currency union with the rest of the United Kingdom, and that it has the right to do so.
But the three main parties in Westminster -- David Cameron's Conservatives, their coalition partners the Liberal Democrats, and Labour -- have all said this won't be an option. The Scottish government responded that this was "bullying" from Westminster.
It's unclear what would happen to Scotland's share of UK debt if it's not part of a currency union.
What's the mood?
A series of opinion polls in past months has given the pro-union camp a lead. However, the most recent polls have shown that shrinking or disappearing altogether.
A YouGov poll conducted for The Sunday Times and released on September 7 caused waves when it showed the "yes" vote narrowly in the lead for the first time, excluding undecided voters. YouGov President Peter Kellner said it indicated support for the Better Together campaign had fallen "at an astonishing rate."
Of course, it's just one poll among many.
The latest poll of polls by ScotCen, an independent research center, shows the "no" camp hanging on to a narrow lead over the "yes" camp, excluding undecided voters.
Many in the Yes campaign feel they have a momentum of support that has built toward the September 18 vote.
But the No campaigners are confident they represent the silent majority who, after considering all the factors involved, will decide against independence.
What would happen if Scotland votes Yes?
Should Scots defy Westminster's expectation and vote "yes," there will be a flurry of activity to ensure everything is in place for Salmond's projected independence date of 24 March, 2016.
Upon confirmation of a victory, the Yes Scotland leader will put together his "Team Scotland" negotiating team. It is expected to include his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, alongside a broad, cross-party group.
Cameron -- if he hasn't been forced to resign after presiding over the breakup of the UK's 300-year-old union -- will need to form his own negotiating side.
Chief among the matters up for negotiation are the currency union and Scotland's share of the UK's national debt, the relocation of the Trident fleet and even potential border controls. The "yes" campaign has said it intends for Scotland to remain part of the Common Travel Area, which allows free movement for citizens of the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.
Cameron will have to move quickly to avoid financial instability by giving a definitive answer to the currency question, and there has been suggestion that the next UK general election -- scheduled for May 2015 -- might be postponed until after Scotland has exited the union.
The Scottish government would have to set in motion a process to produce a written constitution. Queen Elizabeth II would remain head of state.
An independent Scotland would also have to negotiate paths to membership for both NATO and the European Union, two international organizations that the "yes" campaign says are in Scotland's future.
由勞拉·史密斯-斯巴克,美國有線電視新聞網
2014年9月17日 - 更新1202 GMT(2002 HKT)
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新聞提要
蘇格蘭舉行的獨立公投9月18日
“是”的投票將意味著分手了307歲的聯盟與英格蘭及威爾士
民調顯示的勢頭可能已轉移到有活動
首相戴維·卡梅倫可能面臨辭職的要求,如果蘇格蘭打破了
(CNN) - 9月18日,蘇格蘭前往投票站投票,他們國家的未來。
這可能會結束與英格蘭和威爾士的英國蘇格蘭307年的工會一票 - 而且看到它發射到世界的一些530萬的人一個獨立的國家。
在競選活動開始,這似乎是一個遙不可及的前景。但最近的民意調查顯示,現在很多英國人認為不可想像可能發生 - 和英國,因為我們知道它可以被四分五裂。
下面是你需要知道的具有里程碑意義的公民投票。
將獨立的意思是君主制的結束? 英國和蘇格蘭準備離婚? 專家:蘇格蘭票取決於經濟 蘇格蘭決定完全獨立
什麼是蘇格蘭投票的,為什麼?
選民們將會看到一個簡單的是/否的問題:蘇格蘭是否應該成為一個獨立的國家嗎?
蘇格蘭政府,領導的蘇格蘭民族黨,說這是影響他們大部分的決定是“曾經在一代人的機會”在蘇格蘭的人採取控制。“是”票是指“蘇格蘭的未來將在蘇格蘭的手,”它說,那生活會更好,更公平的人民。
英國首相戴維·卡梅倫希望蘇格蘭留大不列顛及北愛爾蘭不可分割英國的一部分。他說,這是一個專為蘇格蘭人民決定 - 但是英國的其餘部分將給予他們的安全性和強度。“不會有回去,”他警告說。
因為英國沒有成文憲法,也沒有既定的法律來治理過程。因此,這些都是真正的未知的水域。
這是為什麼顯著到世界其他地方?
問號在蘇格蘭的未來已經對國內和國際業務產生影響。有人擔心英國的解體可能會破壞倫敦的地位作為一個國際金融資本。
上個月,130商界領袖發表公開信,他們在信中警告說,不確定性的問題上,包括在蘇格蘭的出口貨幣,監管,稅務,退休金,歐盟成員國和支持的影響。一天後,超過其他200名商界領袖簽署了一封公開信,支持獨立的蘇格蘭。
在英鎊的表現領先“是”的選票,與CNN金錢報告第一次輪詢後沉沒週一,它反映了公民投票的結果和風險的增加不確定性“雜亂離婚。”
可能會影響到英國的防禦能力。蘇格蘭政府表示,希望盡快從蘇格蘭刪除核武器 - 即英國三叉戟設在Faslane核潛艇艦隊。蘇格蘭政府說,“這是我們的堅定立場是一個獨立的蘇格蘭不應承載核武器,我們就只能加入北約的基礎上。”
蘇格蘭也有,如果投票支持獨立,重新談判進入北約和歐盟。歐盟領導人已經表示他們將採取強硬立場,使蘇格蘭申請加入像任何其他獨立的國家。然而,“是”運動說,它可以很容易地通過修改現有條約進行。
如果蘇格蘭選擇從英國分裂,這可能會給其他人的想法。
辯論正在密切獨立運動在西班牙的加泰羅尼亞省,加拿大的魁北克省,法國的地中海科西嘉島觀看。
如果蘇格蘭票留下,英國首相很可能會受到壓力辭職下 - 雖然他告訴英國媒體“強調”他不會這麼做。主要的威斯敏斯特各方承諾將下放更多權力給蘇格蘭如果選擇繼續留在聯盟。
誰可以投票?
由於法案去年通過延長投票,16位和17歲的孩子,幾乎每個人都生活在蘇格蘭誰是16歲以上的公民投票的當天就可以投票。
這意味著英語或誰住在蘇格蘭可以參加威爾士公民。但蘇格蘭人誰在別處居住在英國或海外將無權投一張選票。
這也意味著,英格蘭,威爾士和北愛爾蘭的居民沒有得到發言權的一個歷史性變化到英國的妝容。
什麼是VOT背後的歷史è ?
蘇格蘭早已憑藉其人口較多的鄰居暴躁的關係。聯盟在1707年加入了法案蘇格蘭與英格蘭和威爾士的國度,但許多蘇格蘭人不滿被同負一軛的邊界的老對手南。
自1999年以來,蘇格蘭已經有了移交政府,這意味著很多,但不是所有的決定都是在荷里路德,愛丁堡提出在蘇格蘭議會。2011年5月國民黨蘇格蘭民族黨,曾在競選中承諾要舉辦公投,贏得絕對多數,在蘇格蘭議會吃驚不少。
在2012年10月,英國和蘇格蘭政府認為,公民投票將舉行,這個問題被提出來的選民同意在去年年初。
Dauvit布勞恩,蘇格蘭歷史的格拉斯哥大學的教授說,投票表決一個驅動力是通過在威斯敏斯特聯合英國政府奉行的政策的帶動下,卡梅倫在保守黨之間的差距日益擴大,2010年以來,什麼蘇格蘭人民想要的。
許多蘇格蘭人強烈反對當前威斯敏斯特政府試圖改革-或者在他們眼裡拆除-福利國家,並說這不是由他們選出來的。說明這一觀點,只有一個保守黨議員在蘇格蘭目前領先的幽默大師指出,即使大熊貓更好地代表(愛丁堡動物園有兩個。)
“自從撒切爾夫人時期,出現了越來越多的分歧,而從某種意義上說,蘇格蘭是什麼感覺有關......已成為越來越多的不同的英國共識,”布勞恩說。
展望後面,蘇格蘭和英格蘭已經越來越疏遠,因為大英帝國的滅亡,布勞恩說。長老會在蘇格蘭的下降,其中規定自治和蘇格蘭認同感,也推波助瀾獨立的願望起了作用,他說。
誰是主角?
蘇格蘭首席大臣亞歷克斯·薩爾蒙德是台獨運動的熱情洋溢的領導者。工黨議員阿利斯泰爾·達林,誰代表愛丁堡選區,領導著親工會的樂樂不如眾樂樂的運動。
很明顯,我們必須在確保了最親密的盟友,我們永遠不會有一個仍然是一個強大的,強大的,團結的,有效的合作有濃厚的興趣。
奧巴馬
兩人都參加了兩個電視辯論,與親愛的普遍判斷已經拔得頭籌第一,以微弱優勢,並薩爾蒙德已經做顯著更好地在第二位。
卡梅倫還強烈主張英國蘇格蘭剩餘部分的發言。
這不是誰被捲入只是英國的政治家。歌手大衛·鮑伊,由超級名模凱特·莫斯發表了全英音樂獎的獲獎感言,懇求道,“蘇格蘭,和我們呆在一起。”
前曼聯足球俱樂部主帥弗格森也反對分裂,並支持了“樂樂不如眾樂樂”的活動。“800000蘇格蘭人,和我一樣,生活在英國,我們不是生活在國外的其他地方工作;我們只是在英國的家庭的另一部分,”他被引述說。
哈利波特作者JK羅琳,誰住在蘇格蘭,取得了巨額捐贈給樂樂不如眾樂樂的運動,以及披頭士樂隊明星保羅·麥卡特尼已經簽署了一封信,敦促蘇格蘭選民堅持使用英國。
該活動是有它自己的名人支持者 - 包括前詹姆斯·邦德明星肖恩·康納利,演員布萊恩·考克斯,和喜劇演員弗朗基·博伊爾。
演員艾倫·卡明推出了微博活動#goforitscotland。“怎麼現在發生的事情在蘇格蘭是最令人興奮的政治和社會的話語,將永遠改變我們的命運,快來看看吧!” 他在推特上的投票接近。
就連美國總統奧巴馬在法案中得到。他承認這是蘇格蘭人民決定,但他補充說:“很明顯,我們必須在確保了最親密的盟友,我們永遠不會有一個仍然是一個強大的,強大的,團結的,有效的合作有濃厚的興趣”
有哪些關鍵問題?
問題在經濟佔主導地位的爭論。
蘇格蘭政府認為這個國家會更好獨立後, 主要是基於收入來自北海的石油和天然氣的蘇格蘭水域發現其採取的控制。它說,它會管理能源產業更好,投資提高產量,創造了財富基金,類似挪威的石油基金,以造福子孫後代。
但並非所有人都同意蘇格蘭政府的紅潤評估。à 由財政研究所的報告在三月份表示,最新數據顯示,蘇格蘭的預算赤字北部邊境惡化相對於英國的其他地區,由於墜落北海的收入和較高的公共開支。它也警告說,對揮發性,最終有限的收入來源過於依賴的危險。
蘇格蘭政府說,經濟是多元化的,與其他關鍵因素包括食品和飲料,旅遊,創意產業,大學,金融服務和製造業。
另一個大問題是什麼樣的貨幣獨立的蘇格蘭將有。
蘇格蘭首席大臣亞歷克斯·薩爾蒙德表示,他希望蘇格蘭繼續使用英鎊的貨幣聯盟與英國的休息,它有這樣做的權利。
但在威斯敏斯特的三個主要政黨 - 戴維·卡梅倫領導的保守黨,其聯盟夥伴自由民主黨和工黨 - 都表示,這不會是一個選項。蘇格蘭政府回應稱,這是從威斯敏斯特“欺負”。
目前還不清楚會發生什麼樣蘇格蘭的份額英國的債務,如果它不是一個貨幣聯盟的一部分。
有什麼心情?
在過去幾個月的一系列民意調查給了親工會的陣營領先。然而,最近的民意調查表明,萎縮或完全消失。
à YouGov的調查進行了星期日泰晤士報及公佈9月7日引起波瀾,當它顯示“是”狹義的投票中領先的第一次,不包括中間選民。YouGov的總裁彼得·凱爾納說,它表示支持的樂樂不如眾樂樂的運動有墮落“以驚人的速度。”
當然,這只是一個調查中很多。
該調查的最新民調由ScotCen,擁有獨立的研發中心,展示了“不”陣營掛在一個狹窄的領先的“是”陣營,不包括中間選民。
許多的運動是覺得他們有支持已建立對9月18日的投票勢頭。
但不運動者有信心,他們代表了沉默的大多數誰,考慮所有相關因素後,決定將反對獨立。
會發生什麼,如果蘇格蘭票ÿ ES?
如果蘇格蘭人反抗威斯敏斯特的期望和投票“是”,就會有一陣活動,以確保一切都到位薩爾蒙德的獨立預測2016年3月24日的日期。
當確認勝利後,是蘇格蘭領導人放在一起了他的“蘇格蘭隊”談判小組。據預計,包括他的副手,Nicola鱘魚,旁邊一個廣泛的,跨黨派小組。
卡梅隆 - 如果他沒有被強制主持英國300歲解體後辭職 - 將需要形成自己的談判方。
的問題了談判中最主要的是貨幣聯盟和蘇格蘭的份額,英國的國債,三叉戟艦隊的搬遷,甚至潛在的邊境管制。“是”運動已經表示,它打算在蘇格蘭繼續共同旅遊區,允許自由流動的英國,愛爾蘭共和國,馬恩島和海峽群島的公民的一部分。
卡梅倫將不得不迅速採取行動,以避免金融動盪,給一個明確的答案,貨幣問題,出現了建議,即英國大選 - 定於2015年5月 - 可能會被推遲到蘇格蘭後,已退出了聯盟。
蘇格蘭政府將不得不在運動中設置一個進程產生的成文憲法。英國女王伊麗莎白二世將保持國家元首。
一個獨立的蘇格蘭也有談判的路徑,以會員為北約和歐盟,認為“是”的競選班子說,兩個國際組織都在蘇格蘭的未來。
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