(CNN) -- Events in North Korea have left the world wondering: Where's leader Kim Jong Un and is he still running perhaps the most isolated country on Earth?

Some analysts speculate Kim may have been ousted by an old guard from the era of his late father, whose 2011 death put the son in power.

First, Kim Jong Un gained a lot of weight. Then he developed a limp. Now the 31-year-old leader has been out of the public eye since September 4, during which he missed an important state meetingand, more recently, a meeting Tuesday to mark the 17th anniversary of his father's election as general secretary of the Workers' Party.

Those events may not seem like much. After all, Kim could merely be ill, analysts say. In fact, official North Korean media said Kim was "suffering from discomfort," with no elaboration.

But a surprise weekend visit by the No. 2 and No. 3 leaders of North Korea to South Korea has many wondering if bigger intrigue is afoot. Those two leaders plus another top official attended the closing of the Asian Games and then told the South that the North is willing to hold high-level meetings this fall, according to the South.

Though such talks have been attempted in the past, a new round could be significant toward advancing any potential reconciliation on the long divided Korean peninsula.

Which raises the question, where is Kim? And why did the North make a last-minute visit to the South?

 

Why is Kim Jong Un so camera shy?

'It's unprecedented'

"I don't think anybody outside of Pyongyang really knows," said analyst Michael Green of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"The fact that the No. 2 and No. 3 people in the North Korean system traveled out of North Korea at the same time, after the No. 1 Kim Jong Un has been out of the public eye for weeks, and his wife as well, is very unusual," Green added. "It's unprecedented."

It's enough to lead some to wonder whether something of a coup has taken place.

"Has North Korea's Kim Jong Un been toppled?" analyst Gordon G. Chang wrote this week in the Daily Beast. "Of course, in the world's most opaque regime, almost any scenario is plausible. We should know a lot more, however, when we see who is on the reviewing stand during the October 10 celebration of the founding of the Workers' Party.

"Until then, we can say there are signs that Kim Jong Un has lost substantial power and will soon become, if he is not already, a figurehead," Chang wrote.

Citing sources, the Daily Beast also reported last week that North Korea imposed a ban on new travel passes for entering or leaving the country.

Ambassador avoids Kim health question

 

North Korean media: Kim feels 'discomfort'

On Tuesday, Ri Tong Il, deputy ambassador from North Korea to the United Nations, declined to respond to CNN's questions about whether such reports mean something larger, such as instability and pending change within the regime.

The ambassador did address travel issues within the country and said that citizens have the right to travel.

When asked about the condition of Kim, the ambassador deflected the question and said he had a "program" to attend and left.

A North Korean defector, Jang Jin-Sung, who was a prominent propagandist for Kim Jong Un's late father, said the junior Kim is already a "puppet" of a shadowy oligarchy.

A 'symbolic' leader

An old guard who make up the Organization and Guidance Department, or OGD, are the real "power holders," Jang said via telephone from South Korea last week. They were tied closely to the late Kim and are not beholden to his son, he said.

"Kim Jong Un is a symbolic head of state," Jang said. "Symbolically he became Supreme Leader. He did not necessarily inherit all the loyalties, the trust, the connections, experiences. He came in as a newcomer, and his position in the system is not the same."

Jang, who defected to South Korea almost a decade ago, said he has spoken with highly placed sources within the regime in recent days. The OGD, he said, "are calling the shots, and not the words of one man they do not know. Basically, they're no longer loyal to the ruling king's word," Jang said.

 

Are health woes sheltering Kim Jong Un?

Neither CNN nor U.S. intelligence officials can confirm whether Jang's claims are credible, but Ken Gause -- who has studied North Korea for two decades for CNA Corp., a nonprofit agency that provides research and analysis to U.S. government agencies -- agreed that the OGD has enormous clout.

The idea that Kim was ousted by the OGD is a theory "that you sometimes hear from European diplomatic personnel that are stationed in North Korea," said Victor Cha, a professor at Georgetown University.

"Some evidence of this are pictures, propaganda pictures we see of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, that are unflattering pictures that show his girth or that show the back of his head," Cha said. "These are apparently all signs by the OGD that they are in control more than this young fellow is."

Simply ill

Jonathan Pollack, who specializes in East Asian issues for the Brookings Institution, downplayed the likelihood of a power struggle in Pyongyang. He said that high-level maneuvering to influence Kim is a more likely scenario than any effort to strip him of power.

"This is a top-down system. There is no No. 2," Pollack said. "It is a royal system, a dynastic system predicated on there being a Kim and then, dare I say, a 'next of Kim' able to wield authoritative power from the top on an unquestioned basis."

The other dominant theory is that Kim is simply ill.

After all, Kim has a family history of diabetes, obesity and sumptuous living, analysts said.

 

Last Look: Hacking North Korea

"Kim Jong Un combines all that plus the worst of Western pop culture, Cokes and French fries ...," Green said.

Andrei Lankov, an analyst at Seoul's Kookmin University, doubts Kim is in political hot water.

"People get sick," he said. "I wouldn't make much of it."

Why North reaches out to South

Lankov said he believes Kim is still in charge and orchestrated Saturday's remarkable visit that occurred in the South.

"North Korean diplomacy has been engaged in concerted, well-arranged, well-managed efforts to improve relations with pretty much the entire outside world. And you would not expect it to happen with nobody in control," he said.

The reason for the North's friendlier approach bears upon economics, he said.

"They want South Korean money and they want normal trade, which is subsidized by South Korea," Lankov said.

In particular, the North would like the South to lift the so-called May 24 Measure, a heavy trade sanction taken in 2010 after the North Korean military sank a South Korean ship, killing 46 sailors.

If the worst of political skullduggery has occurred -- that is, Kim is out of power -- then North Korea becomes a place of greater concern, Cha said.

"If this guy is no longer in play, and we don't know that, but let's say he is, he is no longer in place, there's no clear line of succession," Cha said.

"If there's an internal power struggle, we don't know the security of the nuclear weapons, the security of the missiles, and it can be manifested in terms of conventional military acts against the South, either intentionally or inadvertently that can then trigger greater prices on the peninsula," Cha said.

"So stuff that happens inside of North Korea can certainly affect folks on the outside in very bad ways."

CNN's Brian Todd, Dugald McConnell, Lorenzo Ferrigno, KJ Kwon and Ben Brumfield contributed to this report.

哪裡是朝鮮最高領導人金正云？
由邁克爾·馬丁內斯，美國有線電視新聞網
2014年10月8日 - 更新0015 GMT（0815 HKT）

您的視頻將開始瞬間。
新聞提要
Kim的一個月的缺席引發公眾猜測是否他已經被推翻
其他分析師說，他只是生病，但仍精心安排參觀北南
朝鮮官方媒體承認金正日是“從痛苦難受”
朝鮮副大使向聯合國拒絕處理金正日的健康
（CNN） -在朝鮮的事件已經離開了人世納悶：哪來的領導人金正云，並且他仍然在運行也許是地球上最孤立的國家？
一些分析師猜測金正日可能已下台了一個老後衛從他已故的父親，他的2011死亡把兒子權力的時代。
首先，金正云積累了很多的重量。然後，他開發了一個一瘸一拐。現在，這位31歲的領導人自9月4日已經淡出公眾視線，在此期間，他錯過了一個重要的國家會議，最近，一見面週二慶祝17週年了父親的選舉為職工總書記黨。
這些事件可能看起來並不多。畢竟，金正日可能只是生病，分析師說。事實上，朝鮮官方媒體稱金正日“患不舒服”，但沒有闡述。
但是到了2號和3號領導人，朝鮮向韓國一個驚喜週末訪問了許多想知道，如果大陰謀是在進行中。這兩個領導人以及其他高級官員出席了本屆亞運會的閉幕式，然後告訴南的北願意舉行高級別會議，今年秋天，南依。
雖然這樣的會談已經嘗試了過去，新一輪也可能是朝向推動任何潛在的和解長期分裂朝鮮半島顯著。
這引發了一個問題，這裡是金？又為什麼朝鮮作最後一分鐘的訪問南方？
為什麼金正云讓相機害羞？
“這是前所未有的“
“我不認為外界平壤真正知道任何人，”說，該中心的戰略與國際研究分析師邁克爾·格林。
“的第2和第3人在朝鮮制度走過了朝鮮在同一時間，後1號金正云已經淡出公眾視線數週，他的妻子的事實好，是非常不尋常的，“格林補充說。“這是前所未有的。”
這足以讓某些人知道的東西政變是否已經發生。
“有沒有朝鮮的金正云被推翻？” 分析師Gordon G.暢這個星期在每日野獸寫道。“當然，在世界上最不透明的政權，幾乎所有的場景是合理的，但我們應該知道得更多，當我們看到是誰在觀禮台在10月10日慶祝勞動黨成立。
“在那之前，我們可以說有一些金正云已經失去了實質性的權力和即將成為的跡象，如果他沒有準備好，一個傀儡，”張純如寫道。
援引消息人士透露，每日野獸也報導，上週，朝鮮施加新的旅行禁令通行證進入或離開該國。
大使避免了金正日的健康問題
朝鮮媒體：金正日感覺“不舒服”
週二，日通金正日，副大使從朝鮮向聯合國，拒絕回應CNN的問題關於這樣的報導是否意味著政權內部更大的東西，如不穩定和掛起的更改。
這位大使沒有地址出行問題，在該國境內，並表示，公民有旅行的權利。
當被問及金的情況下，大使答非所問，說他有一個“節目”出席並離開。
一名朝鮮叛逃者，張真，宋，誰是突出宣傳為金正云已故的父親，說，初中金已經是一個陰暗的寡頭政治的“傀儡”。
A“象徵性“ 的領導者
一個老後衛誰做了組織指導處，或缺糖，是真正的“掌權者”，張經來自韓國的電話上週表示。他們被緊緊綁在金晚，不聽命於他的兒子，他說。
“金正云是一個國家的象徵頭，”張說。“象徵他成為最高領袖，他並不一定繼承所有的忠誠，信任，連接體驗。他進來的新人，他在系統中的位置是不一樣的。”
張，誰叛逃到韓國幾乎是十年前，他說他已經和在最近幾天的政權內部身居高位的來源。在缺氧缺糖，他說，“是發號施令，而不是一個人，他們不知道的話，基本上，他們不再忠實於執政王的命令，”張說。
有健康災難庇護金正云？
無論是美國有線電視新聞網也美國情報官員也證實張的說法是否可信，但肯·高斯 - 誰研究北韓二十年的CNA公司，一個非營利性機構，提供研究和分析，以美國政府機構 - 同意OGD有巨大的影響力。
金正日被推翻由缺糖的想法是一種理論“，你從駐紮在朝鮮的歐洲外交人員有時會聽到，”查懋成，在喬治城大學的教授說。
“這方面的一些證據有圖片，我們看到了朝鮮最高領導人金正云的宣傳圖片，這是證明自己的腰圍，或展示他的後腦勺直言不諱的照片，”查說。“這是明顯的缺氧缺糖的所有跡象表明他們在控制超過這個小伙子。”
只是病了
喬納森·波拉克，誰在為布魯金斯學會東亞問題，淡化平壤權力鬥爭的可能性。他說，高層次的操縱來影響金正日比任何努力來剝奪權力的他更可能的情況。
“這是一個自上而下的系統，沒有2號，”波拉克說。“這是一個皇室制度，前提有身為金，然後王朝制度，我敢說，一個”接下來的金“能夠從一個不容置疑的基礎上方揮動權威的力量。”
另一種佔主導地位的理論是，金簡直是虐待。
畢竟，金正日患有糖尿病，肥胖和豪華生活的家族史，分析師說。
最後一眼：黑客朝鮮
“金正云將所有的加最壞的西方流行文化，可樂和薯條...，”格林說。
安德烈·蘭科夫的分析師在首爾的國民大學，懷疑金正日在政治上熱水。
“人們生病，”他說。“我不會做太多。”
為什麼北到達了南
蘭可夫說，他認為金正日仍然是負責策劃和週六發生在南方顯著的訪問。
“朝鮮外交一直從事協調，周密安排，精心管理努力改善關​​係與幾乎整個外面的世界，你不希望它發生在任何人的控制，”他說。
究其原因，朝鮮友好的方式承擔著對經濟學的，他說。
“他們希望韓國的錢，他們要正常貿易，這是由韓國資助的”蘭可夫說。
特別是，北想南解除所謂的5月24日測量，沉重的貿易制裁朝鮮軍隊後，在2010年採取擊沉了韓國軍艦，造成46名船員。
如果最壞的政治skullduggery的發生 - 那就是金正日是沒電了 - 那麼朝鮮成為一個地方更令人關注的，查說。
“如果這傢伙不再玩了，我們不知道，但讓我們說他是，他不再是到位，沒有明確的一脈相承，”查說。
“如果有一個內部的權力鬥爭，我們不知道的核武器的安全，導彈的安全性，它可以在對南方的常規軍事行動方面得到體現，無論是有意或無意，可再觸發更大半島價格，“查說。
“所以的東西出現這種情況，朝鮮內部也肯定會影響在非常惡劣的方式鄉親在外面。”
CNN的布賴恩·托德，杜格爾德麥康奈爾，洛倫佐Ferrigno，KJ權和Ben BRUMFIELD促成了這一報告。