愛薇塔樂學英文

Japan economy shrinks on heels of sales tax hike日本經濟萎縮的銷售稅上調高跟鞋

By Shingo Ito ,AFP
August 14, 2014, 12:01 am TWN

TOKYO -- Japan's economy suffered its biggest quarterly contraction since the 2011 quake and tsunami as a sales tax rise slammed the brakes on growth, data showed Wednesday, throwing into question plans for another increase next year.

The 1.7-percent dip in gross domestic product for the second quarter — or a 6.8-percent contraction at an annualized rate — gave the clearest picture yet of the impact of the levy rise.

The weak figures may force Tokyo to reassess another planned tax increase next year, a move aimed at finding new revenue sources to shrink the massive national debt.

While the April-June figure was slightly better than market expectations, it appeared at odds with the government and Bank of Japan's view that the impact of the rise on the world's number-three economy had been minimal.

Still, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe acknowledged that his administration had some work to do.

“As a government, we're going to analyze it and do our best to bring the economy back on a recovery path,” he told reporters.

With the exception of flat growth in the last quarter of 2013, the Wednesday data marked the first quarterly contraction in nearly two years and the biggest since the natural disasters more than three years ago.

“The contraction was within market expectations, but the decline in private consumption was bigger than we thought,” Yoko Takeda, chief economist with Mitsubishi Research Institute, told AFP.

“We still see the Japanese economy as being on course for a gradual recovery.”

She added that the figures were an “exception” due to the tax increase.

“It is more important to see the July-September quarter,” Takeda said.

“That will be the key to predicting the future of the economy, and crucial for making a decision about raising the sales tax again.”

Stimulus Measures

The economy had been on the upswing as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's growth blitz, dubbed Abenomics, helped sharply weaken the yen, giving a lift to exporters' profitability and driving a stock market rally last year.

A huge monetary easing campaign by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was a cornerstone of the program.

But economists warned that the strong growth would take a hit as Tokyo raised its consumption tax to 8 percent from 5 percent — the first rise since the late '90s.

Millions of shoppers launched a last-minute buying binge on everything from cars and washing machines to televisions and alcohol, before the April 1 increase.

Activity slowed right after prices went up, with a 5.2-percent drop in household spending during the quarter, a 10.3-percent plunge in real-estate investment, and a 2.5-percent fall in capital spending.

Last week the central bank warned over a worsening export and factory output picture, but it held fire on launching more stimulus measures, saying the economy was recovering.

Bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly said he is ready to go ahead with more stimulus — similar to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing — but last week gave little indication such a move was imminent.

“The BOJ is likely to change its economic outlook downward — and the market expectation for further monetary accommodation is likely to grow further,” Takahiro Sekido, a strategist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, told Dow Jones Newswires.

It remains unclear if Abe will follow through on a plan to raise the sales tax again to 10 percent, as he faces criticism over the pace of efforts to shake up the highly regulated and protected economy.

Japan's last sales tax rise in 1997 foreshadowed a decline into years of deflation and tepid growth.

But many economists have noted that the circumstances then were different, with the earlier rise coming in the midst of the Asian financial crisis.

日本經濟萎縮的銷售稅上調高跟鞋

由伊藤真吾，法新社
2014年8月14日，上午12時01分TWN

東京 - 日本經濟遭受了最大的季度收縮，因為2011年的地震和海嘯的銷售稅上升砰的一聲剎車的增長，數據顯示，週三，投擲到另一個增長，明年的問題的計劃。

以年率或6.8％的收縮 - - 1.7％的浸在國內生產總值（GDP）第二季度給了清晰的畫面還沒有徵費上漲的影響。

疲軟的數據可能會迫使東京重新評估的另一個計劃加稅明年，此舉旨在尋找新的收入來源，以縮小龐大的國家債務。

而四月至六月的數字比市場預期略好，似乎不符合政府的銀行，關於世界頭號三個經濟崛起的影響是最小的日本的景緻。

不過，首相安倍晉三承認，他的政府有一些工作要做。

“作為政府，我們要分析它，並盡最大努力使經濟回到復甦的道路，”他告訴記者。

除了在2013年的最後一個季度保持平穩，週三數據標誌著第一季度萎縮了近兩年以來的自然災害最大的超過三年前。

“收縮是市場預期之內，但在私人消費的下滑幅度比我們想像的更大，”武田洋子首席經濟學家三菱綜合研究所，對法新社記者說。

“我們仍然看到了日本經濟是在課程逐步復甦。”

她補充說，數字是一個“例外”，由於稅收增加。

“看到七月至九月季度更重要的是，”武田說。

“這將是關鍵，預測經濟的未來，並作出關於再次提高銷售稅的決定是至關重要的。”

刺激措施

經濟一直處於上升階段的首相安倍晉三的增長熱捧，被稱為Abenomics，有助於大幅削弱日元，給人一種提振出口商的盈利能力，推動A股市場反彈的最後一年。

一個巨大的貨幣寬鬆運動由日本央行（BOJ）是該計劃的基石。

但經濟學家警告稱，強勁的增長將受到打擊東京從5％調高消費稅至8％ - 自90年代末以來首次上升。

數以百萬計的購物者推出了最後一分鐘購買熱潮一切從汽車和洗衣機到電視機和酒精，在4月1日增加。

活動放緩價格上漲之後，在家庭支出5.2％的下跌在該季度，在房地產投資10.3％的暴跌，以及2.5％的跌幅資本支出。

上週央行警告說，在一個日益惡化的出口和工廠產出的畫面，但它舉行火推出更多刺激措施，並稱經濟正在復甦。

銀行行長黑田東彥曾多次表示，他願與更多的刺激繼續 - 類似美聯儲的量化寬鬆政策 - 但上星期他沒有跡象表明這種做法是迫在眉睫。

“日本央行很可能會向下調整其經濟前景 - 與市場預期進一步寬鬆的貨幣政策可​​能會進一步增長，”孝弘關戶，戰略家，在三菱東京UFJ銀行，告訴道瓊斯通訊社。

目前還不清楚，如果安倍晉三將落實一項計劃，以再次提高銷售稅至10％，因為他面臨批評，努力動搖了高度管制和保護經濟的步伐。

日本最後的銷售稅上升在1997年埋下了伏筆下降到年的通貨緊縮和不溫不火的增長。

但許多經濟學家都指出，情況則有所不同，與早期的崛起即將在亞洲金融危機中。