How Turkey turned from emerging star to economic mess新興明星經濟爛攤子如何開啟土耳其

By Ivana Kottasova, CNN
August 7, 2014 -- Updated 1016 GMT (1816 HKT)
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses nomadic Turkish groups in Ankara, Turkey, on Wednesday, August 6. Erdogan is now running for president, and the country will cast its vote on Sunday, August 10.Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses nomadic Turkish groups in Ankara, Turkey, on Wednesday, August 6. Erdogan is now running for president, and the country will cast its vote on Sunday, August 10.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Turkey's presidential vote
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STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • The IMF says Turkish economy remains too vulnerable to dangers outside its borders
  • Turkey grew substantially over the last decade as investors turned to emerging markets
  • But volatility, income inequality and high inflation is hurting the growth, IMF warns
 

(CNN) -- Turkey's economy, fattened with foreign investment during its boom-times, has stalled amid warnings its model is unsustainable.

The country's $800 billion economy remains among the 20 biggest in the world -- but the IMF says it can't last and remains too vulnerable to dangers outside its borders. The OECD has also weighed in with concerns, saying the country's addiction to foreign money risks volatility.

How did it get into this mess?

Many developed countries struggled with growth after the global financial crisis. But not Turkey, which grew substantially over the last decade -- the country's GDP grew by average 5.5% per year.

The government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, now a presidential candidate, was praised for its ability to attract foreign investors from Europe and emerging markets such as Russia and China.

 
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The rapid economic growth was largely fueled by cheap credit pouring into the country. As the crisis hit developed economies, investors turned to emerging markets, which promised higher returns than depressed Western markets.

For years, Turkey enjoyed a foreign-funded construction boom. House prices have soared more than 50% since the end of 2009 and both the country's GDP and per capita income have increased threefold since 2003.

But the party ended with the U.S. Federal Reserve announcing a scale-back in its stimulus program last summer. Suddenly, there was less cash available to invest.

With more security in the U.S. economy, investors started pulling their money from the emerging markets.

Turkey's growth slowed to just above 2% in 2013 and the country's currency, the lira, slumped further in January this year. That forced Turkey's central bank to ratchet up its interest rates from 7.7% to 12% -- showing the bank's determination to prevent foreign capital outflows.

Erdogan strongly opposed the bank's move to raise the rates. He argued it would hurt Turkey's growth, blaming the lira's tumble on the opposition and an "interest rates lobby," and saying it was the result of a conspiracy.

What's the economy doing now?

The OECD expects 3.5% growth in 2014, picking up slightly from 2013, but high inflation is pushing the country back and hurting consumers. At around 9%, annual inflation is nearly double the Turkish central bank's target of 5%.

This, coupled with the country's low employment rate leads to high levels of poverty. In an OECD study, one in three Turks said they were not able to afford sufficient food. The OECD average is one in seven.

Furthermore, 20% of Turks live below the relative poverty line, meaning they survive on less then half of the Turkish median income. This makes Turkey the third poorest developed nation, with Mexico and Israel lagging behind.

Turkey's strategic position means the country is the bridge between Asia and Europe. Its membership of NATO and candidacy to join the European Union reflect its importance.

But unrest and uncertainty has already cost the country millions, with its stock market losing a third of its value last year.

新興明星經濟爛攤子如何開啟土耳其
由王菀之Kottasova,美國有線電視新聞網
2014年8月7日 - 更新1016 GMT(1816 HKT)
土耳其總理雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安解決了在土耳其安卡拉土耳其游牧群體,週三,8月6日,埃爾多安正在競選總統,國家會投它的票上週日,8月10日。 土耳其總理雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安解決了在土耳其安卡拉土耳其游牧群體,週三,8月6日,埃爾多安正在競選總統,國家會投它的票上週日,8月10日。
隱藏字幕
土耳其總統選舉投票
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新聞提要
國際貨幣基金組織說,土耳其經濟仍太脆弱了境外危險
土耳其的大幅增長,在過去十年中,隨著投資者轉向新興市場
不過,波動性,收入不平等和高通脹正在損害增長,國際貨幣基金組織警告
(CNN) -土耳其的經濟,養肥了在其繁榮時期對外投資,已經停滯之中警告它的型號是不可持續的。
國家斥資800十億的經濟仍然是20世界最大的中-但國際貨幣基金組織說,它不能持久,也仍然容易受到其境外的危險。在經合組織還稱在與擔憂,稱該國的癮外國貨幣波動的風險。
它是如何進入這個爛攤子?
許多發達國家在全球金融危機後的增長與掙扎。但不是土耳其,這在過去十年大幅增長 - 該國的國內生產總值增長平均每年5.5%。
雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安,現在是總統候選人的政府,被讚譽為它吸引外國投資者來自歐洲和新興市場,如俄羅斯和中國的能力。
Demirtas的:土耳其需要根本性的改變 埃爾多安批評埃及的做法加沙 格魯:無需緊張地區
經濟的快速增長在很大程度上得益於廉價信貸湧入該國。當危機襲來發達經濟體,投資者轉向新興市場,這比承諾鬱悶西方市場更高的回報。
多年來,土耳其享受外商投資建設熱潮。自2009年年底這兩個國家的國內生產總值房價已經飆升了50%以上,人均從2003年的收入已經增加了三倍。
但是,黨結束了與美國聯邦儲備委員會宣布的規模,早在其經濟刺激計劃,去年夏天。突然,有更少的可用現金進行投資。
隨著美國經濟更安全,投資者開始從新興市場拉動他們的錢。
土耳其的經濟增長放緩至略高於2%,2013年該國貨 ​​幣里拉,更在今年一月下滑。這迫使土耳其央行衝高的利率從7.7%到12% -顯示該行的決心,以防止外國資本外流。
埃爾多安強烈反對銀行的做法,以提高利率。他認為這將損害土耳其的增長,指責反對派和里拉的暴跌“利率大廳”,並說這是一個陰謀的結果。
什麼是經濟做呢?
經合組織預計的3.5%的增長,2014年,從2013年開始採摘小幅上升,但通脹高企是推動該國恢復和傷害消費者。在9%左右,全年通脹率近一倍,土耳其央行的目標為5%。
再加上該國的就業率偏低導致高度貧困。在經合組織的研究中,三分之一的土耳其人說,他們沒能提供足夠的食物。經合組織的平均水平是七分之一。
此外,土耳其的20%生活在相對貧困線,這意味著它們就少存活那麼一半的土耳其入息中位數。這使得土耳其的第三個最貧窮的發達國家,墨西哥和以色列落後的。
土耳其的戰略地位意味著該國是亞洲和歐洲之間的橋樑。其北約成員國和候選資格加入歐盟體現其重要性。
但是,動盪和不確定性已經使該國數以百萬計,其股市失去其價值的三分之一,去年。

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