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Is UK set to claim Europe's economic powerhouse title?英國被設置要求歐洲的經濟強國頭銜?

July 25, 2014 -- Updated 1148 GMT (1948 HKT)
 
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • The UK economy expected to grow 3.1% this year, according to the EY ITEM Club
  • Employment is at record-high, but wages are growing at the slowest rate on record
  • Many economists are also warning the UK about a potential housing bubble

Editor's note: Are you benefiting from the economic recovery? Share your views on Twitter via #CNNBusinessView.

(CNN) -- The UK economy has shaken off the European crisis with growth figures that outshine its G7 peers.

It is expected to grow 3.1% this year, according to a forecast by the prestigious EY ITEM Club, above earlier expectations of 2.9%.

The growth is well above that expected of Germany, Europe's biggest economy and one which dragged the bloc out of crisis, at 1.8%.

"We have moved from the recovery phase to expansion. And furthermore, it's looking very durable," said Peter Spencer, professor of Economics and Finance at University of York and chief economic adviser to the ITEM Club.

Figures released Friday show the British economy passing the pre-crisis peak from 2008, with second quarter of growth of 0.8%.

Spencer said the growth is no longer financed by people tapping into their savings -- as was the case this time last year -- but by business expansion and a stronger labor market.

 
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Business spending is on the rise, meaning companies are investing into production rather than sitting on cash. Business investment by itself now generates more than half of the UK's growth.

The government is trumpeting a record-high employment -- 73.1% of people were in work in the three months to May, matching up the previous record-high from 2004/2005.

But there is a catch. While record numbers of Brits are working, their wages are growing at the slowest rate on record -- and at about half of the inflation rate.

That fuels another problem of the UK's economy -- the chronic and rising inequality. Of all UK households, only the highest earning 20% increased their disposable income last year. The remaining 80% of households suffered a drop in their income, numbers released by the Office of National Statistics show.

The Bank of England has also warned that the UK productivity has been "extremely and uncharacteristically weak" since the recession.

Productivity growth, which indicates if the economy can produce more for less, remains below the pre-crisis levels, at 16%.

Many economists are also warning the UK about a potential housing bubble. The average cost of a home in the UK is now 20% above the pre-crisis peak in 2007.

The IMF has already warned the UK government that rising house prices and low productivity could hinder the economic growth and urged the country to put in place "early measures" to prevent housing bubble.

But Spencer told CNN the fears of a bubble were overblown. "This is not driven by mortgage borrowing. In London for example, it's mainly cash buying and overseas buyers," he said, pointing to relatively flat mortgage borrowing.

The UK is also vulnerable to shocks from outside. Half of the country's international trade is with the European Union countries, many of which are still suffering from the consequences of the eurozone crisis.

"If Germany takes a hit, we'll suffer too. If Germany does well, we'll do well, like the rest of Europe," Spencer said.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


由王菀之Kottasova,美國有線電視新聞網
2014年7月25日 - 更新1148 GMT(1948 HKT)

故事突出
英國經濟今年有望增長3.1%,根據安永ITEM俱樂部
就業人數達到創紀錄的新高,但工資增長最慢的速度紀錄
許多經濟學家也警告英國大約一個潛在的房地產泡沫
編者按:你是否受益於經濟復甦?分享您的看法通過#CNNBusinessView Twitter的。
(CNN) -英國經濟已經擺脫了歐債危機與一枝獨秀的G7同行的增長數字。
預計今年將增長3.1%,根據預測由著名的安永ITEM俱樂部,高於早前的2.9%的預期。
該增長率遠高於預期的德國,歐洲最大的經濟體和一個拖累歐元區走出危機,在1.8%的。
“我們已經從復甦階段轉移到擴張。再者,它看起來很耐用,”彼得·斯賓塞,經濟學和金融學教授,紐約大學和首席經濟顧問,該項目會說。
週五公佈的數據顯示,英國經濟經過金融危機前的高峰期從2008年0.8%的增長第二季度。
斯賓塞說,增長是由人竊聽到他們的儲蓄不再融資 - 的情況一樣,去年這個時候 - 而是由業務擴張和更強大的勞動力市場。
歐元區的失業率鬥爭 全球定位系統:克魯格曼對美國經濟 歐洲央行通縮戰鬥在歐元區
企業支出是在上升,這意味著企業正在投資於生產,而不是坐在現金。商業投資本身現在會產生超過英國的增長一半。
政府正在鼓吹一個創紀錄的高就業 - 人73.1%的人在工作三個月至五月,匹配了此前的紀錄新高的2004/2005。
但有一個陷阱。雖然英國人的記錄編號工作,他們的工資增長最慢的速度紀錄 - 和一半左右的通脹率。
該燃料在英國經濟的另一個問題 - 慢性和不斷上升的不平等。所有的英國家庭中,只有收入最高的20%增至去年的可支配收入。其餘80%的家庭在遭受他們的收入下降,由國家統計辦公室公佈的數字顯示。
在英國央行也警告說,英國的生產率自經濟衰退以來“極度並一反常態弱”。
生產率的增長,這表明如果經濟可以產生更多的少,仍低於危機前的水平,為16%。
許多經濟學家也警告英國大約一個潛在的房地產泡沫。一個家在英國的平均成本現在是20%以上,金融危機前的高峰期在2007年。
在國際貨幣基金組織已經警告英國政府,房價上漲和低生產率可能會阻礙經濟增長,並敦促該國落實“早”措施,防止房地產泡沫。
但斯賓塞告訴CNN泡沫的擔憂被誇大。“這不是按揭貸款帶動。在倫敦為例,它的主要現金購買和海外買家,”他說,指著相對平坦的按揭貸款。
英國也是容易受到外來因素的衝擊。該國的國際貿易中有一半是與歐洲聯盟國家,其中許多來自歐元區危機的後果仍在受苦。
“如果德國需要一擊,我們會受太大。如果德國做得很好,我們會做的很好,像歐洲的其他地方,”斯賓塞說。

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